招银证券：给予同程旅行(00780.HK)“增持”评级 目标价18.00港元
招银证券5月20日发布公告。Tongcheng-Elong delivered upbeat 1Q22 results, with rev/ adj. net profit +6%/- 17% YoY, 4%/12% above consensus. Mgmt. guided 2Q22E rev to decline 40-45% YoY, with adj. net profit at RMB50-100mn. We view the guidance as forgivable, despite topline/ bottom line midpoint 18%/42% below consensus. We believe soft 2Q22E (due to lockdown disruptions) is well priced in recent stock price, and expect 2H22E to see gradual rebound (Sep to reach 2021 level, and 4Q22E to achieve positive growth), with relaxation of travel restrictions after 2Q22 epidemic. Given TC’s lower exposure in high-tier cities, we expect TC to deliver above-industry growth, and see faster-than-peers rebound ahead. For the full year, we estimate FY22E topline/bottom line will drop 10%/19% YoY (adj. NPM at 15.4%). We trimmed TC’s FY22-24E earnings forecast by 21-27% to reflect COVID-19 resurgence impact, but we believe LT fundamentals remain intact. Adjust TP to HK$18.
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