华泰金融(HK)：给予理想汽车-W(02015.HK)“买入”评级 目标价134.94港元
华泰金融(HK)7月26日发布公告。Li Auto’s revenue/net profit/adjusted net profit were RMB25.6/0.6/1.3bn (+36/-37/ -% yoy) for 1Q24. The company expects to deliver 105-110k vehicles (up 21-27% yoy), with revenue of RMB29.9-31.4bn (up 4-9% yoy), for 2Q24. For 2024/2025/ 2026, given that the L6 is about to kick off mass deliveries, coupled with continued iteration of organization structure and a potential sales rally, we estimate sales volume at 485/785/1,043k units, revenue at RMB141.9/216.9/275.2bn, and attributable net profit at RMB7.6/13.0/18.9bn. We value the stock at 20x 2025E PE, a discount to the average of its peers (Tesla, Geely Automobile, and BYD) of 23x, to factor in adjustments to the pace of battery electric vehicle (BEV) model rollout. Our target price is HKD134.94. BUY.
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